US Open 2025 Final: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz (2)

Date: September 7, 2025

Tournament: 2025 US Open

Round: Final

Venue: Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $90,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz preview

In Picture: Sinner in action (Getty)

The final of the 2025 US Open will be contested between the top two seeds, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, on September 7, with the winner leaving New York as the World No. 1 on the ATP Rankings.

Both of Sinner's titles in 2025 have come at Grand Slams at the Australian Open and Wimbledon, where he won against the likes of Alexander Zverev and Alcaraz in the respective finals, with the Italian also reaching the finals of Rome, Roland Garros, and Cincinnati, losing against his Spanish rival on all three occasions.

At the US Open, Sinner began with a routine drubbing of Vit Kopriva in the first round, losing only four games against the Czech player, before winning 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 against Alexei Popyrin in the second round. His first form of challenge came in the third round, when he lost the first set against 27th seed Denis Shapovalov, but recovered to win the match in four sets.

Sinner's next two matches were easygoing as he lost only three games against 23rd seed Alexander Bublik in the fourth round, and then easily won 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 against tenth seed Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals. In the semifinal, he faced against 25th seed, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and had to battle it out over three hours in a tight four-set battle before winning the match 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 to reach his fifth consecutive Major final.

Carlos Alcaraz has been the best player on Tour this year in terms of wins and titles, as the Spaniard has reached eight finals this year, won six titles already, won 60 matches in the season, and has been a class apart from the rest. On the Grand Slam stage, he won his fifth title at the French Open after a phenomenal final against Jannik Sinner, and also reached the final at Wimbledon, where he lost against the Italian.

Alcaraz is yet to drop a set at this year's US Open, as he started his campaign with wins over Reilly Opelka, Mattia Bellucci, and 32nd seed Luciano Darderi in the first few rounds. He dispatched Arthur Rinderknech 7-6 (3), 6-3, 6-4 in the fourth round, before putting yet another dominant display in the quarterfinals, winning 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 against 20th seed Jiri Lehecka.

Alcaraz faced off against Novak Djokovic in the semifinal, having lost his last two matches against the Serb and never having won against him on a hard court. However, the Spaniard put together a splendid performance, winning 6-4, 7-6 (4), 6-2 to reach his second US Open final.

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Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz head-to-head

The head-to-head is 9-5 in favor of Alcaraz, with the Spaniard winning the last encounter against Sinner at the Cincinnati Open final, as the Italian retired in the first set.

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Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Jannik Sinner	-125	TBD	TBD
Carlos Alcaraz	+100	TBD	TBD

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction

In his semifinal, Sinner had a low first serve percentage at 53, but he won 76 percent of his first serve points and won 67 percent of his second serve points. He did well under pressure, saving nine of the ten break points he faced, while breaking the opponent's serve four times in the match.

Against Djokovic, Alcaraz won 42 of 50 points behind his first serve, and won over 50 percent of his second serve points as well. He faced only one break point in the match, and broke the Serb's serve four times in the match.

In their last completed match, during the Wimbledon final, Alcaraz's poor first serve percentage was a significant reason for the Spaniard's loss, and Sinner's composure under pressure was key to the Italian's win. Provided the one match these two played at the US Open in 2022 was a great one, this match could be a thrilling one, with the Italian having the slight edge, as it is on a hard court.

Pick- Sinner to win in five sets