3 reasons why India may not win Asia Cup 2025

The Asia Cup 2025 kicks off today (Tuesday, September 9) with Afghanistan taking on Hong Kong in the tournament opener at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi. Defending champions India will start their campaign tomorrow (Wednesday, September 10), facing hosts UAE at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium.

India will then take on Pakistan on Sunday, September 14, in Dubai, before concluding their group-stage matches against Oman on Friday, September 19, in Abu Dhabi.

Despite being strong favorites to defend their title, India faces several challenges that could impact their campaign. On that note, here are three reasons why the Men in Blue may not win the Asia Cup 2025.

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#1 Limited match practice heading into the Asia Cup 2025

Team India’s last T20I series was against England earlier this year (January-February). Since then, the team has not played any competitive matches collectively. While several players featured in the IPL and participated in their respective state T20 leagues, the squad lacks cohesive match practice in the T20 format.

Afghanistan, UAE, and Pakistan recently participated in a tri-series in Sharjah. The tournament concluded on Sunday, September 7, with Pakistan emerging victorious. The series gave all three teams valuable match practice and helped them understand the dynamics of their squads.

Sri Lanka also played a three-match T20I series against Zimbabwe, winning 2-1, while Bangladesh defeated the Netherlands 2-0 in their series. Although India has held practice sessions since arriving in Dubai on September 4, the lack of competitive match readiness could become a factor, as other teams are already in rhythm while India works to find theirs.

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#2 The puzzle of India’s playing XI

Another factor that could affect India’s campaign is their playing XI. While the top order is largely settled, there is ongoing debate over the wicket-keeping slot between Sanju Samson and Jitesh Sharma.

India also faces challenges in the lower middle order, with options like Hardik Pandya and Axar Patel. If the team decides to include Shivam Dube to strengthen the batting, it could compromise the bowling balance. Conversely, opting for an all-bowling approach might make the batting lineup look light.

With spinners expected to play a key role, including both Varun Chakaravarthy and Kuldeep Yadav alongside Dube could leave India with only one frontline seam bowler.

In this scenario, Jasprit Bumrah will likely lead the pace attack, but leaving out Arshdeep Singh, India’s leading wicket-taker in T20Is with 99 wickets in 63 games, could weaken the bowling department. With so many selection dilemmas, it will be interesting to see how India finalizes their playing XI and which combination they ultimately choose.

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#3 India’s dismal record in multi-nation events in the UAE

The Asia Cup 2025 will mark India’s third participation in a multi-nation tournament in the UAE. Their first outing was the 2021 T20 World Cup, where they failed to reach the semi-finals. India played five matches in that tournament, four in Dubai, winning two but losing to Pakistan and New Zealand, while winning their only game in Abu Dhabi.

India returned to the UAE for the Asia Cup 2022, but once again struggled to adapt. They played five matches in Dubai, winning three and losing two, with defeats against Pakistan and Sri Lanka in the Super Four stage, ultimately failing to reach the final.

The young Indian side, led by Suryakumar Yadav, will need to break the jinx and rewrite history with a strong performance in the UAE if they hope to win the Asia Cup 2025.